Changes predicting long-term care use among the oldest-old.

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to identify health-related changes occurring between 1983 and 1990 that characterize and differentiate 1996 long-term care outcomes (no services, home care, nursing home) among people aged 85 years and older. DESIGN AND METHODS Variables capturing health-related changes between 1983 and 1990 in a cohort (N = 616) of Aging in Manitoba Longitudinal Study participants aged 85 years and older were used in a series of logistic regression models to identify factors that best predicted the use of long-term care services in 1996, controlling for age and sex. RESULTS Factors predicting home care use relative to no services included changes in self-rated health, income adequacy, and railings outside of the house. Factors predicting nursing home use relative to home care included age and changes in general life satisfaction. Factors predicting nursing home use relative to no services included age; previous service use; length of time in the community; and changes in income adequacy, type of housing, and state of mind. IMPLICATIONS These findings challenge assumptions about the linearity of the continuum of long-term care services, because different factors were shown to predict home care use than were shown to predict nursing home use.